Betting on the Kentucky Derby: How to Pick a Winning Horse
An EquestrianMag Special Feature Presented by Bodog

As the first leg of the Triple Crown Races, the Kentucky Derby is one of the world’s most preeminent horse racing events. Among bettors, it’s also one of the most popular.

Held every May at Churchill Downs Race Track in Louisville, Kentucky, this year’s big race is scheduled to take place on May 3, 2008. Along with the coveted Derby trophy, the winner also pockets a large portion of the $2 million purse. But just as winning the race is no easy feat, betting on a winner is also a challenge.

The Kentucky Derby features a large field of some of the fastest thoroughbreds in the world and it is entirely possible for any one of the top Derby contenders to win. And that in a nutshell is what makes betting on the Kentucky Derby so exciting.

Having said that, here are a few insider betting tips and considerations to help you make a more informed decision when it comes time to bet on your favorite horse:

A Solid Santa Anita Derby Finish: A Grade 1 thoroughbred horse race for 3-year-olds run each April at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California (with a purse of $750,000), this race has gone on to produce six Kentucky Derby winners since its inception in 1935. So if you’re looking for a strong finish at the Derby, chances are good that horse will have also put in a good finish at the Santa Anita Derby.

A Few Stakes Races Wins: Sixteen of the last 20 Kentucky Derby winners have won at least one stakes race as a 3-year-old. The same doesn’t hold true for 2-year-olds, however. Eight of the last 20 Kentucky Derby winners won a stakes race at age 2. Needless to say, it takes a stakes winner to win the Kentucky Derby.

Experience Counts: Over the last 20 years only one horse with less than six career starts has won the Kentucky Derby. Look for a horse that has at least five starts to its name.

Getting in a Good Pre-Race Workout: Pay close attention to the pre-Derby workouts. Horses that put in a slow run or poor workout at Churchill Downs may not turn it around in time for the big race. Over 60 percent of the Kentucky Derby winners in the last 20 years worked out more than once at the track and over 70 percent of the Derby winners in the last 20 years “breezed” through their final pre-race workout.

Feel the Need for Speed: A fast start doesn’t necessarily guarantee a first place finish at the Kentucky Derby. Instead, look for a horse that can hold its own and rally from behind to win it in the end. Pressers (within 2-4 lengths of the lead) have won the Derby five times in the last 20 years; horses that rally from behind have won it 12 times.

Beyer Speed Figure: A system for rating the performance of thoroughbred racehorses in North America (designed by Andrew Beyer), the Beyer Speed Figure reflects the time of the race and the inherent speed of the track over which it was run. In order to win the Kentucky Derby a horse should be capable of breaking the 100 Beyer mark in most of their racing lines prior to the Derby.

Trainer and Jockey: This is an important tip not to be overlooked. Check to see how well the trainer and jockey perform under pressure. Not only is experience important for the horse, but it’s also important for the trainer and the jockey to have a few tough races under his belt. Better yet - a winning jockey and trainer make for a likely Kentucky Derby winner.

For more horse racing information, Triple Crown betting tips and odds on the 2008 Kentucky Derby check out the Bodog Racebook.

Reader Comments

Submit your comments

Link to this article

----------------------   It's easy! Just copy code below and paste into your webpage     --------------------

<a href="http://www.equestrianmag.com/article/betting-kentucky-derby-03-08.html">Betting on the Kentucky Derby: How to Pick a Winning Horse</a> ~ EquestrianMag.com

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Your link will appear like this:
Betting on the Kentucky Derby: How to Pick a Winning Horse ~ EquestrianMag.com