Measuring the Odds for the World Cup Top Ten in Kuala Lumpur
Equestrian News Release

Kuala Lumpur, MY – April 28, 2006 – Although a race is not won until the last person crosses the finish line, World Cup history certainly suggests that the victor is likely to come from the top half dozen riders following the first round. Only three times since the inaugural final in 1979 has the winner come with a late charge from the lower ranks: Conrad Homfeld from seventh with Balbuco in 1980; Jet Run in 1981 who lived up to his name and carried Michael Matz from 11th place to the winner’s circle; and Canada’s Mario Deslauriers in 1984 who move up from eighth to first place with Aramis.

Unless 2006 is an exception, any betting man would certainly measure the odds and put his money on a top-ten rider after day one in Kuala Lumpur – if the World Cup Final wasn’t taking place in an essentially Islamic country that frowns upon gambling and only saw the opening of its first casino in the past couple of years!

Starting at number 10, Estonian rider Gunnar Klettenberg certainly raised a few eyebrows based on his past form at World Cup finals (27th in Las Vegas in 2005 and 31st in Milan, Italy in 2004). However, he produced an audacious round with the 11-year-old bay mare, Novesta whose pedigree on paper ironically outclasses that of her rider! The best odds would likely be no better than 40:1.

Ranked ninth, Robert Smith has a definite genetic advantage inherited from his show jumping father, Harvey. The pair crossed swords in one World Cup Final, in Berlin 1985, when they finished 39th and 37th respectively. Since then, somewhat surprisingly, Robert has only made two further World Cup appearances, in 1988 (25th) and 2003 (36th). Odds are no better than 30 to 1 that this will be Robert’s year.

Colombian ex-pat Juan Carlos Garcia, riding for his adopted Italy since 1987, is appearing in only his second World Cup Final, although his inaugural appearance in 2004 resulted in sixth place, also with Loro Piana Albin III, the now 18-year-old Selle Français gelding he’s partnering in Kuala Lumpur. Remarkably, Albin’s former owner planned to retire the horse at the age of 16, but after much pleading, Juan Carlos was allowed to purchase the ever-green gelding and the pair has gone from strength to strength ever since. Not the best investment at 20:1.

A veteran of 17 World Cup Finals, Britain’s Michael Whitaker needs little introduction and is within easy striking distance of the lead in 7th place after round one. His best finish was second place at last year’s Las Vegas Final riding Portofino, with whom he’s competing in Kuala Lumpur. By Whitaker’s own admission, the 12-year-old mare is “one of the best horses I’ve ever sat on,” and although the Yorkshireman wasn’t looking to break any speed records on Thursday evening, there was a determined set to his jaw that can’t be ignored. I would put him among the favorites for a podium finish, if not outright victory, at 5:1.

Margie Engle is the highest placed U.S. rider, ranked 6th after round one (ahead of Alison Firestone, 15th), which is perhaps a little disappointing for this talented squad. The Wyndhurst Stables’ 13-year-old Quervo Gold certainly hit top form during the recent WEG trials, and Engle herself is a veteran of 12 World Cup Finals, with her best result coming in Helsinki 1998 when she finished 6th. Despite their classy performance in round one, I can’t visualize the U.S. overcoming their 20-year World Cup drought in 2006 and would therefore only put Margie at 10 to 1.

Alois Pollmann-Schweckhorst is not a name that easily trips off the tongue and although he’s a stylish rider he tends to play second fiddle to the regular ‘A’ list of German riders. His ride in Kuala Lumpur is Candy, a very experienced 14-year-old mare who has exhibited occasional flashes of brilliance and been a consistent performer, but is usually the bridesmaid and never the bride! Although the pair is well-placed, ranked 5th after day one, I don’t think Alois’s fourth World Cup Final appearance is likely to be more fruitful than last year’s ninth-place finish in Las Vegas: 20 to 1.

Ireland’s Jessica Kürten is no stranger to the winner’s circle, and recent devastating form elevated her to second place in the world rider rankings. Although Libertina is only her second choice Grand Prix horse, Kürten refers to the feisty 10-year-old mare as “my tiger, because she’s so wild she thinks she can jump anything.” Assuming the pair can maintain the control and harmony required to jump Rothenburger’s tight courses, 3 to 1 would be a good bet.

Californian-born defending World Cup Champion Meredith Michaels-Beerbaum might be considered an over-achiever where horses are concerned since she won her first equitation class at the age of eight! Her subsequent marriage to Markus Beerbaum and the adoption of German nationality in 1998 marked another turning point in her ever-growing list of accomplishments. However, if it came down to the wire on Sunday, and despite Checkmate’s stunning record, I would give Kürten the edge over Michaels-Beerbaum at 4 to 1.

Beat Mändli has been a stalwart of the Swiss team for the past decade, but a lack of good horses in recent years has relegated him to the sidelines in terms of World Cup appearances. His last and best result came in 2001 when he finished third with the recently retired Pozitano. Modest by nature, Mändli cautiously predicts that he will finish in the top three. In a tight finish on Sunday he will be an unyielding opponent and I would give him joint odds alongside Kürten at 3 to 1.

Germany’s Marcus Ehning is another strong silent type who tends to keep his own counsel. Rarely can he be drawn to make wild predictions, preferring that his long list of accomplishments and that of his horses be allowed to speak for themselves. In Sandro Boy, a 13-year-old stallion, he has found another genius who produced an impeccable performance on Thursday evening to lead the field at the end of day one in Kuala Lumpur. Giving him the edge to win at odds of 2 to 1, my personal prediction is that Ehning, who claimed his first victory in Las Vegas in 2003, could well join the elite rank of riders who can boast multiple World Cup Final titles.

PhelpsSports.com victory odds for the top ten riders after day one of the 2006 World Cup Final in Kuala Lumpur:

Marcus Ehning – 2:1

Beat Mändli – 3:1

Jessica Kürten – 3:1

Meredith Michaels-Beerbaum – 4:1

Michael Whitaker – 5:1

Margie Engle – 10:1

Juan Carlos Garcia – 20:1

Alois Pollmann-Schweckhorst – 20:1

Robert Smith – 30:1

Gunnar Klettenberg – 40:1

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PHOTO CREDIT: © Peter Llewellyn. Marcus Ehning, World Cup leader riding Sandro Boy following the first round in Kuala Lumpur.